Ford Hybrid Car Case Bass Essay

Before beginning any case, students should familiarize  themselves with the model being used. Marketing Engineering for Excel comes with tutorials that demonstrate the capability of each model. The tutorial can be found under each model within the MEââ€" ºXL menu after starting Excel. These tutorials are  designed to work with our OfficeStar examples which are located in the My Marketing Engineering directory, usually installed in My Documents during software installation.  There is no external data set associated with this case; all necessary data are included herein. Ford’s Hybrid Future In September 2006, Alan Mulally had just taken over as the CEO of Ford, the fifth largest corporation in the United States. Ford was in trouble, as was the entire American auto industry, partly due to the rapid increase in average gas prices from $1.10 per gallon for regular, unleaded gasoline in January 2002 to more than $2.50 per gallon in September 2006, according to the Energy Information Administration. Sport utility vehicles and trucks, the mainstays of Ford’s product line, no longer had the depth of consumer appeal they had in the past. Ford’s stock price had declined more than 30% from September 2004, and for the 2006 fiscal year, Ford executives were projecting a loss of almost $6 billion from ongoing operations; paired with restructuring costs, the total projected losses reached approximately $9 billion. Through its â€Å"Way Forward† plan, Ford announced buyout offers for 75,000 hourly workers and planned to cut 30% of its 35,000 salaried employees in the United States. Although these cost-saving measures would improve profitability, ultimately, Ford needed to win in the marketplace to regain its past status; to win, it needs to take drastic market-oriented actions. As part of the Way Forward plan, the previous CEO (and current Chair) William Clay Ford initially announced that the company would build 250,000 hybrid cars annually by 2010. Now Mulally is rethinking that commitment: Would it be enough? Would that be too much? He needs a quick and credible answer to this question before deciding how forcefully to push the hybrid car program within Ford. Mulally also recognizes that the technologies and manufacturing systems that support hybrid cars are growing more and more sophisticated, and companies such as Toyota and Honda, with their head starts in these areas, may move more quickly down the learning curve, producing their cars more cheaply and in greater volumes, which would make it difficult for other companies to catch up to them. To plan Ford’s long-term investments in the hybrid car business, Mulally needs a 10-year forecast of the overall U.S. hybrid Copyright  © 2008 by DecisionPro, Inc. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, go to www.decisionpro.biz. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the permission of DecisionPro, Inc.  market, the world’s largest consumer of gasoline, along with corresponding forecasts for the sales of Ford’s hybrid cars if they are made available to the market. Background A hybrid car is an automobile powered by two sources: (1) an internal combustion engine or diesel engine, as in a regular car, and (2) an electric motor. However, hybrid cars do not need to be recharged via electric plugs; instead, they receive charge from the movement of the wheels and store the generated kinetic energy through a process called regenerative braking. Hybrid cars provide higher mileage by requiring a less powerful engine than a comparable regular car and help conserve nonrenewable sources of energy, such as diesel or gasoline. The smaller engine in the hybrid car is powerful enough to move the car along on the freeway, but when it needs to accelerate or get up a steep hill, it needs the assistance of the electric motor and battery to boost the power output. Hybrid cars work much like regular cars and create little difference in terms of how they are driven, refilled with gas, or serviced. However, hybrid cars typically cost approximately $3,000 more than comparable re gular cars (base price of $25,000 to $30,000) and offer a 10– 15% improvement in gas mileage. The actual savings depend on the driving habits of the user; gradual acceleration, coasting, and the use of cruise control help increase mileage. Although many experts have predicted that hybrids will be the cars of the future, it remains difficult to predict their popularity with consumers and, consequently, their profitability for auto companies. Within the past few years, hybrid cars have gone from being novelties, bought largely by environmentalists and technology-oriented consumers, to represent an established, though small, part of the automotive landscape. According to J.D. Power & Associates, hybrids constitute approximately 1.5% of the total U.S. light-vehicle market, but sales have been growing quickly as other segments have stagnated or fallen. Sales in 2005 of 205,000 units were more than double the 2004 sales levels. A recent survey by J.D. Power also reveals that 57% of consumers who expect to acquire a new vehicle within the next two years will consider a hybrid. Worldwide, approximately 800 million cars and light trucks are in operation, and 240 million of these are in the United States. By 2020, 1 billion cars and light trucks are expected to be in use worldwide. All these cars could eventually be replaced by hybrid cars. In addition to consumer demand for hybrid cars, car manufacturers’ interest in hybrid cars is driven by CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) regulation, according to which an automaker must maintain a minimum mileage of 27.5 miles per gallon (mpg) across passenger cars in its product line and 20.7 mpg across light trucks. The U.S. Congress appears likely to raise these standards in the future in response to societal pressures; according to some experts, the CAFE average may rise to 35 mpg or higher by 2020 across the entire product line (i.e., including all passenger cars and light trucks produced by the manufacturer). Hybrid cars offer the opportunity to raise gas mileage sufficiently to meet this requirement, and therefore, most car manufacturers have either launched hybrid cars or announced plans to do so. An auto manufacturer that fails to meet the standard must pay a penalty to the federal government, which some companies, including BMW, Porsche, and Ferrari, have paid i n 2006. 1 1 The penalty for failing to meet CAFE standards is $5.50 per tenth of a mile per gallon under the target. Thus, a manufacturer that produces cars that average 2 miles below the target and sells 10,000 cars in a given year will pay a fine of $1,100,000 for that year. In 2006, BMW paid a fine of $5.1 million. FORD HYBRID CAR CASE 2/8 Forecasting Considerations The chart in Exhibit 1, from www.hybridcars.com, illustrates the variety of opinions regarding sales forecasts for hybrid cars. The black line shows hybrid sales continuing at their current pace, determined in the time since hybrids first were introduced in 2000. Considering the future five-year timeframe, J.D. Power forecasts are well below the line, whereas others (e.g., D.O.E., Freedonia Group, BoozAllen) predict wider public acceptance of hybrids. Exhibit 1: Forecasts for Hybrid Cars  The wide variation in forecasts reflects some fundamental uncertainties surrounding this technology and market: Technology uncertainties: Many alternative technologies offer different price/performance points. The gas–electric hybrid is the most common; alternative technologies include pure electric cars and fuel cell cars. Alternative fuels might be used in nonhybrid cars and could gain popularity, swaying consumers away from buying hybrids. Some alternative fuels currently in use include E85 (an 85% ethanol blend), clean diesel, and natural gas. For 2006, Ford increased its production of four vehicles that can run on a mixture of gasoline and E85 (i.e., F-150 pickup trucks, Ford Crown Victorias, Mercury Grand Marquis, and Lincoln Towncars). In a 2005 KPMG survey of 140 senior auto executives, 88% predicted that gas–electric hybrids would gain market share. Even within the gas–electric hybrid market, automakers apply the hybrid technology at varying levels. For example, Honda and Toyota make full-blown hybrid cars, whereas General Motors eased into the sector with a scaled-down, less-expensive hybrid technology that still needed some gasoline to power the transmission. A FORD HYBRID CAR CASE 3/8 breakthrough in battery technology may create a shakeout among the alternative technologies. According to the Department of Energy, either lithium ion or lithium polymer batteries may offer the best future technologies. Lithium ion batteries possess nearly twice the energy of NiMH (nickel–metal– hydride) batteries but require significant circuitry to prevent overcharging and undercharging. They also require thermal management and pose some safety concerns. Hydraulic hybrid technology also is considered superior to the electric hybrid technology, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); UPS is currently testing hydraulic hybrid trucks for use in its regular fleet. Auto companies are also testing other technologies; in 2007, BMW plans to produce 100 hydrogen cars for its 7 series. BMW spokesperson Andreas Klugescheid notes that these cars will not be sold but rather given to consumers who may â€Å"have a potential impact on making a hydrogen economy happen.† These cars will run on hydrogen or gasoline, depending on the driver’s preference, which acknowledges the limited availability of hydrogen fuel and the difficulties associated with distributing it. Market uncertainties: Many uncertainties surround the decisions of both dealers and consumers. For consumers, the potential economic benefit of a hybrid car depends on the price of gasoline. At a gas price of $2.50 per gallon, the breakeven point between a hybrid and a regular gasoline car can occur after 50,000 miles of driving. The higher initial cost is also a barrier to many consumers. To make hybrid cars more attractive to consumers, federal and state governments offer several incentives. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT) offers consumers and businesses federal tax credits for their purchase of fuel-efficient, hybrid electric vehicles, in effect through 2007. The amount of tax credit depends on the fuel economy and ranges from $400 to $2500 per vehicle. Some states also offer special incentives for hybrid car drivers, such as solo use of high occupancy lanes (e.g., Georgia, Florida, Arizona), tax credits (e.g., Utah, Illinois, Colorado), or exemption from sales tax on the ca r (e.g., Connecticut, New Mexico). At the same time, some consumers are willing to buy hybrids, even at higher differential prices, to make a statement (you are what you drive!). The Toyota Prius was such a success that dealers charged additional fees for the car and established buyer waiting lists. According to surveys, some consumers would be willing to pay somewhat more for electricity to power their cars if they knew it was coming from renewable and nonpolluting resources. Hybrids also may require some changes in driving habits, such as learning to accelerate and stop smoothly and coasting whenever possible. Many consumers also are not aware that, unlike most regular cars, hybrids achieve better mileage during city driving compared with highway driving. Ford is organizing special â€Å"driver education† events, during which current owners  will team up with Ford engineers to discover ways to improve gas mileage when using hybrid cars. The company hopes that such activities will promote wordof-mouth communications about Ford’s hybrid cars. According to Mary Ann Wright, Ford’s director of hybrid technologies, through this program, â€Å"we created about 300 ambassadors for us. It’s free advertising, and we’re getting some great feedback from them.† Many celebrities, including Leonardo DiCaprio, Cameron Diaz, Bill Maher, and Will Ferrell, not only drive hybrid vehicles but openly promote their choice. Thus, it is becoming easier for consumers to hear buzz about hybrid cars and educate themselves, such as through Internet research or by discussing the option with friends and acquaintances who may own a hybrid. The demographics of the typical hybrid car buyer thus may change in the future, especially if the cars grow more attractive to mainstream car buyers. The characteristics of current hybrid car owners are summarized in the  FORD HYBRID CAR CASE. 4/8 following list (Source: Walter McManus, director of the Office for the Study of Automotive Transportation, University of Michigan): †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ High level of education. Higher income than the average new buyer—approximately $100,000 a year versus $85,000 a year for the average buyer. More likely to be female. A few years older than the average car buyer—closer to 50 than the average age of 40 years for all car buyers. Drive fewer miles on average. Plan to keep their car longer than the average person—a little more than five years rather than less than five years. Willing to pay more for an environmentally friendly (or â€Å"green†) product. Want to do something to help reduce vehicle pollution. More pessimistic about the future of fuel prices than the average person. Forecasting Hybrid Car Adoption Using the  Bass Model A key consideration in developing forecasts using the Bass model is an understanding of the diffusion process of analogous products. Several different product categories may provide suitable analogs based on the â€Å"substitution† of one type of technology by another. Using this logic, the market research group at Ford has proposed that the diffusion process of diesel cars in Europe might provide a suitable analogous situation because, over time, diesel cars substituted for gasoline cars as the technology of choice. Starting with Volkswagen’s introduction of its Golf diesel car in 1976, the adoption of diesel cars has progressed steadily, and diesel vehicles now account for more than 50% of new car registrations in Western Europe. However, according to Christy Swiecki, an auto industry analyst, the adoption of hybrid cars in the United States is likely to be slower, if the experience of switching to renewable energy is any guide. Although wind, solar, and geothermal so urces of energy are more environmentally friendly, their adoption rates have been slow, partly because traditional sources of energy (e.g., coal, petroleum) remain relatively inexpensive and convenient, and alternative sources may not provide greater economic benefits when the total consumer experience is taken into account. According to Swiecki, initial enthusiasm for hybrid cars will fade, especially once the market expands beyond the traditional high-income, environmentally friendly consumers and as people begin to realize the potential environmental issues with respect to the disposal of the rechargeable batteries in their hybrid cars. She therefore projects sales of hybrid cars in 2015 will be, at most, in the range of 6–8% of the total light-vehicle market of approximately 16.5 million vehicles. Another approach to forecasting views hybrid technology as a â€Å"feature enhancement† to a regular car that increases its mileage. In that case, hybrid cars would be perceived as just another â€Å"under-the-hood-innovation† that delivers more fuel efficiency without sacrificing power, and they should appeal to a broad market. Using this perspective, the market research group at Ford has proposed that the adoption patterns of antilock braking systems (ABS) and fuel-injection technologies might be useful analogs. Both these  technologies were built into products and offered as enhanced features that the customer could choose to buy.  Although ABS originally was created for use in aircrafts, by the early 1970s, ABS technology was being developed for automobiles. In 1978, Bosch created FORD HYBRID CAR CASE 5/8 the first ABS that could be successfully mass produced, and Mercedes-Benz and BMW began to offer the technology. The early versions weighed about 6 lbs (compared with 1.5 lbs today) and cost several thousand dollars. By 1985, less than 1% of all new vehicles worldwide were equipped with ABS—mostly high-profile, high-cost vehicles. In 1985, the Chevy Corvette came standard with ABS for the first time, and by 1989, it was standard in all Porsche models, followed by Mercedes-Benz in 1992. By 2000, 60% of new cars worldwide had ABS, and by 2003, this rate had increased to 69%. Fuel injection is another potential technology enhancement that could serve as an analog for hybrid cars. In a gasoline engine, small amounts of fuel  mix with air during combustion. Since the inception of the auto industry, carburettors were the predominant method to meter the amount of fuel used. An engine’s air-to-fuel ratio must be controlled accurately in different operating conditions to achieve the desired performance metrics. With the development of electronic fuel injection (EFI) technology, fuel could be metered very accurately and precisely, which helped increase gas mileage and reduce air pollutants compared with their levels in carburetted engines. Even though EFI was a much superior technology, the transition from carburettors to EFI was gradual, taking about 14 years from 1979 to 1993 for EFI to displace carburettors. Reasons for the gradual transition included the initial high cost of EFI systems (about $600 more per unit than carburettors) and the lack of cl early perceptible benefits for car owners. As a result, the early EFI systems appeared only in luxury and performance cars, which could absorb their higher costs into the overall price. From Market Forecasts to Forecasts for Ford Ford is primarily interested in how many hybrid cars it will be able to sell in the next 10 years so it can make sound judgments about how much capacity for hybrid cars to build in its factories, as well as the amount of effort it should devote to training its dealer network that will sell the cars. Therefore, marketlevel forecasts need to be converted into forecasts for Ford brand hybrid cars. Exhibits 2 and 3 summarize sales of hybrid cars from 2000 to 2006 and sales of Ford hybrid cars relative to the total market in 2006. Ford introduced the Ford Escape hybrid in late 2004 and the Mercury Mariner hybrid in early 2006. Year Number of Hybrid Models (Light Vehicles) U.S. Sales of Hybrid Cars (Units) U.S. Total Number of New Cars (Light Vehicles) Sold 2000 2 9,350 13,181,000 2001 2 20,287 13,510,000 2002 2 35,000 13,639,000 2003 3 47,525 13,594,000 2004 5 88,000 13,609,000 2005 7 215,000 13,551,000 2006 10 252,636 13,271,000 Exhibit 2: Sales of Hybrids in the United States Notes: Light vehicles include passenger cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and pickup trucks. FORD HYBRID CAR CASE 6/8 Car Model Honda Insight Toyota Prius Honda Civic Honda Accord Toyota Camry Toyota Highlander Lexus RX400h Lexus GS450h Ford Escape Ford Mercury Mariner Total Combined (city + highway) EPA mpg 57 55 50 31 39 29 29 26 34 31 Jan. 2006 59 7,654 3,165 351 n/a 2,263 1,477 n/a 801 97 15,867 Feb. 2006 72 6,547 1,780 783 n/a 2,631 1,803 n/a 1,233 108 14,957 Mar. 2006 79 7,922 2,232 581 n/a 2,987 2,470 n/a 1,441 149 17,861 Apr. 2006 110 8,234 3,087 614 86 3,768 2,247 141 3,039 381 21,707 May. 2006 92 8,103 2,890 520 3,032 3,755 2,006 294 2,434 428 23,554 Jun. 2006 77 9,696 2,601 396 4,268 2,705 1,190 231 1,569 315 23,048 Jul. 2006 91 11,114 2,673 504 5,023 2,784 1,220 157 2,060 423 26,049 Aug. 2006 109 11,177 3,411 499 4,977 2,581 1,514 192 1,789 351 26,600 Sep. 2006 19 10,492 2,508 389 4,044 2,347 1,687 164 1,369 282 23,301 Oct. 2006 9 8,733 2,288 287 2,806 1,643 1,239 177 1,343 259 18,784 Nov 2006 2 8,008 2,208 311 3,100 1,667 1,327 176 1,323 161 18,283 Dec 2006 3 9,291 2,408 363 4,005 2,354 1,981 252 1,748 220 22,625 Total Unit Sales 2006 722 106,971 31,251 5,598 31,341 31,485 20,161 1,784 20,149 3,174 252,636 Exhibit 3: Unit Sales of Different Models of Hybrid Cars, 2006. (Source: www.hybridcars.com; www.fueleconomy.gov). FORD HYBRID CAR CASE 7/8 EXERCISES (1) Summarize and justify alternative scenarios (i.e., compelling stories about the future) ranging from pessimistic to optimistic with regard to market performance of hybrid cars. (2) Develop forecasts of hybrid car penetration in the U.S. market from 2007 through 2016 for each scenario you develop, along with a justification and explanation for your forecasts. (In applying the Bass model, note that market penetration data for the four analog products mentioned in the case, namely, ABS, EFI, Solar, and Diesel cars, were all reckoned in terms of the percentage of the target market that adopted the product. Thus the maximum market potential can at most be equal to 100). (3) Recommend short-term and long-term strategies that Ford should pursue based on the forecasts that you develop. Note: This case was developed by Professor Arvind Rangaswamy with assistance from Megan Ruth De Stefano and Sasi Amarlapudi. The case is based on publicly available information as of January 2007. Its purpose is to illustrate a business situation involving forecasting, based on real events; it does not purport to represent actual decisions made by the Ford Motor Company. Data and the case situation described here are based on information obtained from public sources listed in the body of the text and the following: U.S. Department of Transportation; http://www.hybridcars.com; USA Today, October 14, 2005; Plunkett Research, Ltd.; The Wall Street Journal, September 13, 2006.

The Character of Caliban in The Tempest Essay - 1541 Words

The Character of Caliban in The Tempest Caliban is the only authentic native of what is often called Prosperos Island. However, he is not an indigenous islander, his mother Sycorax was from Argier, and his father Setebos seems to have been a Patagonian deity. Sycorax was exiled from Argier for witch-craft, much like Prospero himself, and Caliban was born on the island. Calibans own understanding of his position is made eloquently plain when we first meet him: I must eat my dinner. This islands mine, by Sycorax my mother, Which thou takst from me. When thou camst first, Thou strokst me, and made much of me, wouldst give me Water with berries int, and teach me how To name the bigger†¦show more content†¦Prospero and Miranda were both involved in Calibans education, and the three lived as a family until Caliban overstepped a boundary clear to the two Milanese. Prospero: Thou most lying slave, Whom stripes may move, not kindness! I have used thee, Filth as thou art, with human care, and lodged thee In mine own cell, till thou didst seek to violate The honour of my child. Caliban: O ho, O ho! Wouldt that it had been done! Thou didst prevent me. I had peopled else This isle with Calibans. Miranda: Abhorred slave, Which any print of goodness will not take, Being capable of all ill! I pitied thee, Took pains to make thee speak, taught thee each hour One thing or other. When thou didst not, savage, Know thine own meaning, but wouldst gabble like A thing most brutish, I endowed thy purposes With words that made them known. (1.2.344-358) Miranda is frankly snobbish here, but is excused by the fact that Caliban has attempted to rape her. Caliban is not at all ashamed of the incident. For Miranda, this justifies his current treatment, proving his natural inferiority: But thy vile race, Though thou didst learn, had that int which good natures Could not abide to be with. 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Teaching Methods Academic Achievement And Influence Attitudes

References Akà §ay, A. (2009). WebQuest in the course of teaching methods academic achievement and influence attitudes. Unpublished master s thesis, Atatà ¼rk ÃÅ"niversity, Erzurum. Alhileh Nofal (2007). The effect of the web quest strategy on improving the critical thinking and achievement of educational sciences faculty (UNRWA) Students’ in the teaching of thinking course. Journal of Research on Technology in Education, 37(2), 161-175. Auditor, E., Roleda, L. (2014). The WebQuest: Its impact on students’ critical thinking, performance, and perceptions in physics. International Journal of Research Studies in Educational Technology, 3 (1), 3-21. Bradshaw, A. C., Bishop, J. L., Gens, S. L., Miller, S. L., and Rogers, M. A. (2002). The†¦show more content†¦Social Education, 69, 143-148. Jonassen, D. H., Howland, J. L., Moore, J. L., Marra, R. M. (2003). Learning to Solve Problems with Technology: A Constructivist Perspective (2nd ed.). Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Merrill. Dodge, B. (1995). WebQuests, A technique for Internet Based Learning. Distance Educator, (2), 10 13. Dodge, B. (1997). Some thoughts about WebQuests. Online Available: http://edweb. sdsu.edu/courses/edtec596/about_webquests.html Dodge, B. (2001). FOCUS: Five rules for writing a great WebQuest. Learning Leading with Technology, 28(8), 6-9. Nursing Health Care, 11, 67-73. Ennis, R. (1987). A taxonomy of critical thinking dispositions and abilities. International Journal B. Baron R. J. Sternberg (Eds.), Teaching thinking skills: Theory and practice. New York: W. H. Freeman. Far, A. (2011) Effectiveness of Using Knowledge Trips via Web (Web Quests) in Teaching Geography at Reflective thinking and Understanding of Intermediate School children. Retrieved from nectfl.net/reviewarticles/67FalascaAlstaedter.pdf Gorrow, T. R., Bing, J. R., Royer, R. D. (2004). Going in circles: The effects of a WebQuest on the achievement and attitudes of prospective teacher candidates in education foundations. 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Vodoo as a Religion Essay - 619 Words

Voodoo as a religion There are two different types of voodoo; the religion and the evil version that Hollywood made up. Voodoo has many traditions, and is a lot like Christianity. Both believe in a higher being. The Loa is similar to Christian saints, in which they were once human beings who lived outstanding lives, and are often blessed with a responsibility or honored. Both have ceremony’s similar to communion, and believe in evil spirits or demons. â€Å"Followers of Voodoo believe that each person has a soul which is composed of two parts: a gros bon ange or big guardian angel, and a ti bon ange or little guardian angel. The latter leaves the body during sleep and when the person is possessed by a Loa during a†¦show more content†¦Voodoo is thought to be a powerful religion, because it survived religious persecution and slavery. Many voodoo priests’ and priestesses’ were killed because voodoo was thought to be evil to the Roman Catholics. Voodoo is very much alive today , in fact it is now Haiti’s national religion. Voodoo originated from parts of Africa, but was spread to Haiti and America during slave trade.(Voodoo) I believe that this religion survived because slaves tended to hang on to their religion and beliefs because what they believed was the only thing that they owned and could control. Voodoo has had a major impact in Haiti; so much so that they have declared voodoo as there national religion.(origins of Voodoo) It also has had a major impact on New Orleans, Louisiana. A lot of New Orleans’s art and culture is based on Voodoo and it’s traditions. A lot of bad stuff has been said about Voodoo; however, when the religion itself is researched and separated from the myths and superstitions its not much different from the religions that are considered normal. Voodoo is a religion and should be respected like any other religion. References Orgins of Voodoo.Retreived July 8, 2008, from http://www.swagga.com/voodoo.htm Robinson, B.A.(2006,February 6).Vodun.Religous Tolerance.Retreived July 8, 2008 from http://www.religioustolerance.org/voodoo.htm Voodoo.Retreived July 8, 2008 fromShow MoreRelatedTraditional Tales As A Reflection Of Culture1217 Words   |  5 Pagesdecline of humanity’s morality. Due to this, traditional tales are a reflection of culture in which they are retold as a result of lifestyle and one’s beliefs. Almost all relied on God and his actions to reflect their daily lives on behalf of their religion and knowledge from past stories. A myth is a traditional tale of discussing legends or traditions. They are usually found in all cultures and have symbolic meanings in which can be effective for the people who have heard the traditional taleRead MoreSpiritual Perspectives on Healing of Three Non-Mainstream Religions and Christianity897 Words   |  4 Pagesblending of many cultures, languages and religions to form a single national identity† (U.S. Department of State, 2010). In this paper, three non-mainstream religions, Vodun, Rastafari and Taosim, are going to be discussed and compared to Christinaity in regards to their spiritual perspectives of healing, their critical components to healing and what health care providers should know when caring for people of these cultures. Vodun Vodun, also known as Vodoo comes from the God Vudon of West AfricaRead MoreThe Zombie Apocalypse: Revealing the Monster Essay1779 Words   |  8 PagesDeath is the scariest part of living. Humanity has always been acutely aware of this horrible inevitability, and as a result of this almost near obsession with mortality certain practices, precautions, and even religions have been developed to ease the weary minds on death. Self- preservation, preparedness and survival motivate almost faction of human interest and behavior but becoming prepared for the conceivable anything and asking all the â€Å"what if† questions in the world still might not save humanityRead MoreCaribbean Literature1477 Words   |  6 PagesToday this legacy is resplendent in popular music such as the CALYPSO, the Cuban SON, and the Puerto Rican BOMBA; in the traditions of storytelling originating out of West Africa and India; and in supernatural tales from African religions, including SANTERIA, LUCUMI,VOD UN (vodoo), and SHANGO. Proverbs, riddles, and sayings that reinterpret African, European, and East Indian traditions are also most prominent in Caribbean literature. Among these are Anancy (a cunning spider) stories; animal dilema tales

Bhopal Gas Tragedy Free Essays

Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. INVESTIGATION OF LARGE-MAGNITUDE INCIDENTS: BHOPAL AS A CASE STUDY Ashok S. Kalelkar Arthur D. We will write a custom essay sample on Bhopal Gas Tragedy or any similar topic only for you Order Now Little, Inc. Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA Presented At The Institution of Chemical Engineers Conference On Preventing Major Chemical Accidents London, England May 1988 ABSTRACT The investigation of large-magnitude incidents is fraught with difficulties and the process of establishing the primary cause of an incident often requires an understanding of human nature in addition to the necessary technical and engineering skills. The salient non-technical features that are common to the investigation of large-magnitude events are discussed in general. The investigation of the Bhopal disaster is discussed as a specific case study in light of these salient features. The results of the overall investigation are discussed and it is demonstrated that the commonly-held view that water-washing of a certain header caused the disaster is physically impossible. Evidence is presented which indicates that direct water entry into the methyl isocyanate storage tank was the likely initiating cause of the Bhopal disaster. I. INTRODUCTION In the aftermath of a major accident or incident in the chemical industry, it is common practice to ascertain the cause of the event through an investigation. If the magnitude of the incident is very large in terms of its impact on people, property, or the environment, it is not uncommon to assemble several teams of investigators to seek the cause of the incident independently. In the United States, a large-magnitude event may be investigated by the company that owns the facility, the insurance group that rovides the liability coverage, federal investigators (e. g. , OSHA, EPA), and state and local regulatory agencies. When several investigations are being conducted concurrently, in spite of the differing interests that are represented by each investigating team, cooperation and fact-sharing generally occurs among the investigating teams. This cooperative spirit was evident to some extent, for example, in the investigation of the LPG disaster in 1984 in Mexico City l. Page 1 of 16 Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. Given the significant amount of damage that is typically associated with a large-magnitude event, coverage by the news media is both extensive and exhaustive, especially if a number of fatalities have occurred. The news media represent yet another group of separate investigators and tend to focus on the human interest aspects of the tragedy. In addition, often with little hard information available, they actively speculate on the cause of the event in an attempt to â€Å"scoop† the story; that is, to be the first to report the cause to the world at large. In recent years, the news media with their surfeit of investigative reporters have become a predictable presence at the site of an incident. Although no two major disasters are the same, our involvement in the investigation of more than a dozen events of significant magnitude has led us to believe that there are certain salient features that are common to most investigations. They include: 1. Media Pressure – In the immediate aftermath of a large-magnitude incident, both nontechnical and technically trained reporters converge on the site, looking for quick â€Å"answers† to the question of what caused the event. Most reporters are responsible, restrained, and unbiased in their reporting. However, a fringe group usually appears on-site that is more interested in developing causation theories, which seem to have great public appeal, regardless of their veracity. In the case of the disaster at Bhopal in 1984, the cause celebre was the â€Å"missing slip-blind† during a water-washing operation. An assertion was made that failure to insert a slip-blind prior to water-washing of some filters ultimately led to water entering the MIC tank and starting a reaction. This assertion proved to be false, as will be demonstrated later in this paper. The difficulty with these incorrect causation theories is that, because the public and the media have a short attention span, the theories can become the conventionally accepted versions of what occurred. When a technical investigation discloses the actual cause much later, there may be less coverage, because the event is â€Å"old news† by then. 2. Psychological Issues – It has also been our experience that those people associated with a large-magnitude incident seem to evince an internal need to put some psychological distance between themselves and the incident. For example, there are those who feel — in hindsight — that even though they were not responsible for the event, they could have done more to reduce the magnitude of the event. And there are those who just wish it had not occurred on â€Å"their watch†. There are also occasions when persons on duty distort and omit major facts to establish a reduced responsibility for the event. There is substantial evidence that such distortions and omissions occurred in Bhopal. 3. Eyewitness Accounts – When eyewitnesses are questioned about a major accident or incident, they tend to reveal only those facts that they personally consider important and pertinent. Thus, a good investigator must draw people out, using a line of questioning which elicits all pertinent facts. We have found that an eyewitness is most likely to be forthcoming and helpful if he or she is questioned immediately after the event. Once a story is told, whether accurate or inaccurate, it tends to harden. Further, where a deliberate distortion occurs, with the passage of time, the persons involved tend to coordinate their stories better. This puts a substantial premium on talking to persons involved quickly. In the Bhopal situation, the Union Carbide investigation team was blocked from doing this by the Indian Government for over a year. As a result, Union Carbide was unable to uncover the ultimate cause of the event until 1986. 4. Contradictory Accounts – When faced with contradictory statements from various Page 2 of 16 Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. witnesses, an investigator has to weigh various accounts and then judge which account is likely to be correct, discarding the false account. This may require gaining an understanding of the probable motives of those persons who, knowingly or unknowingly, provided the incorrect accounts. It is also often possible to assess the accounts against known or technically established facts, to determine their accuracy. We encountered numerous cases of directly contradictory accounts of various situations that transpired during the Bhopal incident from those who were present during the event. 5. Time Perception – Although witnesses in a traumatic incident often recall the sequence of events with remarkable clarity, their perceptions of time during the actual incident sometimes differ. Therefore, when establishing the true chronology, witnesses’ time perception must be evaluated against objective evidence. In the case of the Bhopal investigation, piecing together the correct chronology required that perceptions of time among different witnesses be accounted for in a consistent manner. The above list of features is by no means complete. However, it does identify some significant issues that are manifest in incident investigations, and which should be considered by investigators of large-magnitude incidents. The very presence of these issues makes an incident investigation more than a purely technical exercise. In many ways, one can liken the investigation to attempting to correctly piece together a complex jigsaw puzzle, with the added challenge of having several pieces that are hidden, others yet to be discovered, and several extraneous pieces that do not belong in the completed puzzle at all and have to be discarded. To add to the investigator’s difficulties, the â€Å"puzzle† has to result in a clear picture, even though assembled in a background of human tragedy and suffering, media attention, and a general aura of suspicion and hostility towards the plant and company investigation teams. The above factors are those which we have identified in our investigation of large-magnitude incidents, and many of these factors played a role in the investigation of the Bhopal incident. The following sections will give a brief background of the investigation, elaborate upon some of the factors which were encountered and resolved during the investigation, and present some of the evidence and the conclusions of the investigation. II. BHOPAL INVESTIGATION BACKGROUND To the best of our knowledge, two separate major detailed technical investigations of the Bhopal event were authorized. One investigation 2, sponsored by the Government of India (GOI), was conducted by a staff of scientists and engineers from the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), and it included other experts as well. A second investigation3, sponsored by the Union Carbide Corporation (UCC)*, was conducted by scientists and engineers from UCC, Union Carbide India Limited (UCIL), outside experts, and attorneys. The two investigations went forward entirely independent of one another. (The Indian Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) also conducted its own investigation. ) In addition to these major investigations, dozens of opinions, purportedly based on investigations of the incident, were offered by various newspapers, magazines, television and radio commentators, authors, organizations, consultants, and politicians. Such accounts generally proved Page 3 of 16 Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. to be quite flawed and incomplete. Union Carbide investigators were at the site of the incident at Bhopal within days of the event to provide assistance and to conduct an investigation, but found that the plant had been sealed and placed under the control of the CBI. The cause of the incident was not then apparent. The methyl isocyanate (MIC) production unit had been shut down six weeks prior to the incident and the storage tank (Tank 610) had been isolated at that time; all that was known was that the pressure had risen in Tank 610 during the third shift on a Sunday night, December 2-3, 1984, and that MIC had been released into the atmosphere. It was unknown whether the release had been triggered by the entry of a contaminant, water, or some other agent. The search for the cause of the incident at that point was, however, a secondary consideration; a second tank (Tank 611) containing some 20 tons of MIC remained, and the first order of business was to assist in its safe disposal. It was determined that the safest route would be to process the MIC and SEVIN carbaryl pesticide, which was then done promptly. The processing of this tank of MIC was conducted jointly by UCIL and the CSIR, with the assistance of UCC’s technical team, in an activity labeled Operation Faith by the Indian Government. Following the safe disposal of the remaining MIC in December of 1984, the UCC investigation team attempted to begin its investigation. However, the legal skirmishes had commenced in both the United States and India and the CBI essentially maintained complete control over the records of the MIC unit. Although the investigation team was permitted to see copies of records in the period immediately following the event, it was allowed to do so only by specifically requesting a copy of a particular record or document. *The author of this paper and the organization he represents were a part of this investigation team. Thus, if the team was unaware that a particular document existed, the document would never come to its attention, even though it might have a significant bearing on the outcome of the investigation. Moreover, the CBI prohibited interviews with the plant’s employees. The team submitted to the CBI a list of 193 plant employees whom it wanted to interview, but permission was refused. The CBI would only authorize discussions with the Plant Manager and the MIC Production Superintendent, neither of whom was on duty the night of the incident. In fact, the CBI was conducting a criminal investigation into the incident, and it contended that attempts by Union Carbide’s investigating team to formally interview the workers would constitute â€Å"tampering with evidence† in the criminal investigation. The problem of access to information was further magnified by this threat of criminal prosecution by the Indian government, Union Carbide’s Chairman, Warren Anderson, who went to Bhopal to offer assistance and relief immediately after the incident, was placed under arrest upon his arrival in the city, and seven UCIL officers and employees were also arrested. This posture, in addition to physically preventing an investigation by Union Carbide, created an atmosphere of fear of criminal sanctions among the plant workers. Such an atmosphere, together with the sheer magnitude of the disaster, made witnesses even more defensive and uncommunicative than is usually the case in such investigations. Further, the CBI conducted its criminal investigation into the incident using aggressive tactics. We believe this treatment played a major role in the development of a â€Å"cover-up† by plant employees. As noted earlier, there is a reflexive tendency among plant workers everywhere to Page 4 of 16 Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. attempt to divorce themselves from the events surrounding any incident and to distort or omit facts to serve their own purposes. This is especially so where the investigation is criminal in nature. In addition, once an eye-witness has taken a defensive position under aggressive questioning by police making a criminal investigation, it becomes, as a practical matter, nearly impossible for the witness to later change that position to state the actual facts. The team was permitted access to samples of the tank residue, and, after several months of extensive analysis of the residue of Tank 610, including more than 500 experiments, the UCC investigation team issued its report in March 1985 3. The team concluded that the incident was caused when 1,000 to 2,000 pounds of water entered the tank. After subsequent experimentation and more extensive sampling much later, the amount of water was determined to be even greater. This large quantity of water reacted with the MIC in the tank, causing its temperature to rise to over 100 °C, leading to a vigorous exothermic trimerization of MIC, resulting in rapid rises in temperature and pressure, and ultimately causing the major release. The incident occurred, despite the fact that the system had been designed and operated to keep out even small amounts of water, and the fact that no water had ever entered the tanks during the five years the plant had been in operation. Moreover, it was clear upon subsequent sampling and analysis that no water had entered either of the other two MIC storage tanks. Because the MIC production facility had been shut down for over a month prior to the incident, and for a variety of other reasons that will be discussed, the investigation team concluded that direct entry of the water — that is, by a direct connection to the tank rather than through the plant’s piping system — was likely. However, because the team had not been permitted to interview the plant employees and did not have full access to the records, it was unable to develop this theory further at that time. The CSIR publicly issued its report 2 in December of 1985, approximately one year after the incident. The CSIR report also concluded that the event was caused by the entry of a large quantity of water into Tank 610. The CBI has not, to date, issued a public report of the findings of its own investigation. LITIGATION For more than a year, the CBI continued to prohibit interviews with the plant’s employees. In the interim, a new aspect to the investigation developed. The Indian Government filed a civil suit against Union Carbide Corporation in the United States, asserting that the Government was the sole representative of the Bhopal victims. Thus, the Government acted as the plaintiff in a civil case with an interest in proving Union Carbide Corporation to be liable, yet, in its institutional role, it continued to exercise complete control of access to the sources of proof, restricting Union Carbide’s ability to learn the truth, and fostering a version of the facts which supported its own litigation interest. The Government’s position as a party to the civil suit ultimately provided certain benefits to Union Carbide’s investigation. In December 1985, a U. S. agistrate 4 ordered the Indian Government to turn over copies of certain of the plant’s records that had been seized, and these then became available for analysis by Union Carbide for the first time. Moreover, while it was before the U. S. court seeking information from Union Carbide, the Indian Government could not, as a practical matter, continue to restrict access to plant employees, which enabled Union Carbide to finally begin intervie ws. Despite having been denied access to the evidence for more than a year and despite being viewed with a great deal of hostility and suspicion, Union Carbide investigators Page 5 of 16 Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. conducted a thorough review of the incident which included detailed interviews with virtually all of the relevant plant employees. INTERVIEWS Union Carbide employees and representatives began to interview the plant’s employees in January 1986. Many people spoke openly and willingly. However, the team anticipated that there would be problems in interviewing the plant’s employees, and the team therefore was assisted by a person familiar with most of the employees. This proved advantageous because the team found that many would speak to him, even if they were unwilling to speak to the entire team. It also proved beneficial in assessing the credibility of each individual. Language also loomed as a potential problem, although ultimately it did not prove to be troublesome. Although all operators spoke English, many were more comfortable speaking Hindi. Several members of the team were fluent in Hindi and, by translating each question and answer, the interviews progressed smoothly. However, the team did encounter some problems in locating the involved employees and persuading them to talk about a traumatic incident that had occurred a year and a half earlier. The Bhopal plant had been shut down since the incident, and the employees, by and large, had sought other employment. Many of the former operators and other employees had departed Bhopal without leaving any forwarding addresses, and it took weeks of questioning former landlords and neighbors to determine their whereabouts. Several had relocated as far away as Nepal and remote areas of India. This required lengthy journeys — in one case, only to find the wrong individual with the same name. Careful advance preparation was therefore necessary. Many of the former MIC operators were later employed by the State Government as plant safety inspectors. Some of those who had been most directly involved refused to talk to the team and eluded many attempts. Because politeness is an Indian trait, in fact, some would make appointments for interviews, but then disappear just prior to the appointment. Once found, however, the customary politeness proved to be an advantage, and the investigators learned it was wise to nurse the obligatory cup of tea for hours to prolong the interview in order to obtain bits and pieces of new information. Although the Indian Government has continued to refuse access to the original plant records, copies of some of them were produced in the civil suit, and the investigators were able to analyze them and use their content in the interviews. The investigators conducted well over 70 interviews over the course of a year and a half. The significant aspects and findings of this investigation are presented in what follows. To better understand the findings, however, a basic understanding of the plant’s layout and operation is necessary. III. BHOPAL PLANT LAYOUT AND OPERATION The plant layout is shown in Figure 1. Methyl isocyanate (MIC) was produced at the Bhopal Page 6 of 16 Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. plant by reacting monomethylamine and phosgene in the plant’s MIC production unit. The refined MIC was then transferred to a separate MIC storage area (see Figure 2) where it was stored in two horizontal, mounded, 15,000-gallon, stainless-steel tanks. A third storage tank was kept empty for emergencies and for off-specification material awaiting reprocessing. The MIC was used to make SEVIN carbaryl and several other carbamate pesticides. The MIC was processed into SEVIN carbaryl pesticide in the SEVIN unit. The MIC was transferred in one-ton batches to a charge pot in the SEVIN unit using nitrogen pressure. A nitrogen pressure of at least 14 psig in the MIC storage tank was necessary to move the material from the storage area to the SEVIN unit charge pot at a reasonable rate. From there, each batch would be reacted with alpha-naphthol to make SEVIN carbaryl. On the night of December 2-3, 1984, the 41 metric tons of MIC in one of the storage tanks (Tank 610) underwent a chemical reaction which was initiated by the introduction of water to the tank. The reaction caused the release of MIC through the relief-valve system. This, in turn, resulted in the Bhopal tragedy. The exact means by which water entered Tank 610 that night was the subject of the investigation described in this paper. The team first considered and analyzed the purported cause of the incident which had been publicly reported by the media. This was the socalled â€Å"water-washing theory. † This story is discussed next. IV. THE ORIGIN OF THE WATER-WASHING THEORY As discussed in Section I, the media generally play a significant role in establishing public perception of the cause of large-magnitude incidents, often drawing conclusions before the facts can be established. In the days immediately after the incident, the story that emerged from the plant workers, as reported by the press (much of which ultimately provided to be fallacious), was as follows: Shortly before the end of the second shift, at 10:20 p. . , the pressure in Tank 610 was reported to be at 2 psig. The shift change occurred at 10:45 p. m. , and everything was normal until 11:30 p. m. , at which time a small leak was reported downwind and in the area of the MIC production unit. The MIC supervisor said that he would deal with the leak after tea, which began at 12:15 a. m. The tea lasted until 12:40 a. m. at which time all was normal. At that point, the control room operator observed the pressure rise suddenly in Tank 610, and within minutes the indicator was off the gauge’s scale. At 12:45 a. . , the safety valve on the tank opened, and gas came out of the stack of the vent gas scrubber. The operators ran to the tank and found it rumbling, and the concrete over the tank was cracking. The fire squad sprayed the stack to knock down the gas, and the reaction subsided an hour or so later. The workers claimed to have no idea as to why the pressure rose in the first instance. According to this account, the incident occurred suddenly and inexplicably. There was, however, intense media pressure to quickly identify the cause of the incident. As noted above, some journalists tend to try to uncover a cause that is easy to understand and easy to explain; they also show a tendency to find and publicize an explanation that will have popular appeal. In the case of Bhopal, this caused the media to seize upon reports of an improper waterwashing of a pipeline in the MIC production structure — a report that first began to circulate only days after the incident. According to this story, an MIC operator was told to wash a section of a subheader of the relief valve vent header (â€Å"RVVH†) in the MIC manufacturing unit. Because he Page 7 of 16 Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. failed to insert a slip-blind, as called for by plant standard operating procedures, the water supposedly backed up into the header and eventually found its way into the process vent header (â€Å"PVH†) through a tubing connection near the tanks. It then was supposed to have flowed into the MIC storage tank, located more than 400 feet by pipeline from the initial point of entry. This was, to a layman, an apparently plausible, easily understood explanation of the water source, which did not require any detailed knowledge of the plant process or layout. It also was a theory that had popular appeal because it focused on a simple, minor human inadvertence which caused a great tragedy — a â€Å"for-want-of-a-horseshoe-nail-the-kingdom-was-lost† explanation. It was readily accepted by those eager to believe the incident had been caused by improper operating practices at a purportedly shoddy chemical plant in a Third World country. The waterwashing theory was also publicly embraced by the Indian Government. Although the water-washing theory has superficial appeal, those engineers most familiar with the plant — its valving, piping, and layout — found the theory highly implausible. When Union Carbide finally gained access to the plant, talked to witnesses, and considered all the evidence, it concluded that the theory could not withstand even minimal scientific scrutiny. And, although the Indian Government holds in its possession records and test results that completely discredit this theory, it continues to embrace it nonetheless. Several independent pieces of evidence demonstrate that water-washing of lines in the filter area could not possibly have been the cause of water entry into Tank 610. This evidence is discussed next. V. EVIDENCE REFUTING THE WATER-WASHING THEORY The details of the pertinent parts of the plant vent systems, shown in Figure 3, will be helpful in understanding the material presented in this section. The water-washing theory assumes that water from an operation designed to wash a sub-header near four process filters (Point â€Å"A† of Figure 3) went through the relief valve vent header (RVVH), then through a connection to the process vent header (PVH) and then into Tank 610 (Point â€Å"B†). At least three independent, objective pieces of evidence establish that this could not have happened. . BLEEDER VALVE HYDRAULICS The water was introduced using a hose with a 1/2-inch inlet. Even assuming all intermediate header-system valves to have been wide open, for water to have reached the top of the PVH riser near Tank 610 (Point â€Å"B† of Figure 3), it would have had to be under sufficient pressure near the point of introduction (Point â€Å"A† of Figure 3) to en able it to climb 10. 4 feet. Associated with the filters near the washing operation, however, there are four 1/ 2-inch bleeder valves in parallel (see Items 18 of Figure 4). Of these, one was reportedly mechanically plugged, but the other three were reported by five eye-witnesses to be wide open and draining freely. With the 1/2-inch hose connection to the washing operation limiting the flow to about 10-15 gallons/minute, the three open bleeder valves would limit the water back-pressure above them to no more than about 0. 7 foot of hydraulic head, clearly not enough to raise the water by 10. 4 feet. Page 8 of 16 Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. 2. CLOSED INTERMEDIATE VALVE In the above paragraph, we assumed for the sake of argument that all intermediate valves in the header systems between the water connection and Tank 610 were open. It should be noted that if any one of these valves was closed (and leak-tight), the waterwashing theory must fail. One such valve is the valve close to the water-washing operation, connecting it to the RVVH (see Item 19 on Figure 4). A plant mastercard (a detailed record of steps taken during maintenance) shows it to have been shut since November 29, 1984. The mastercard also reflects that the valve was physically tagged closed; after the incident, the tag was found to be still present on the valve. Furthermore, with the authorization of the Indian Government, the integrity of this valve was tested in a July 1985 simulation of the waterwashing operation; in this one-hour test, no water leaked past this valve into the RVVH. There is no way that water from the water-washing operation could have reached Tank 610 without first passing through this valve, which is documented to have been closed and leak-tight. 3. DRY HEADER PIPING For water to have penetrated to Tank 610 from the water-washing area, it would have had to fill the 6-inch diameter connecting pipe, then a 65-foot length of 8-inch RVVH (with more than a dozen branches running off this line), and then some 340 feet of 4-inch RVVH. It would then have had to fill a 120-foot length of 2-inch PVH and a last 220-foot section of 2-inch PVH with the vertical legs at each end of this section. Calculations show that some 4,500 pounds of water would have been needed to fill all this piping, before any could get to Tank 610. Thus, if the water-washing operation were the source of the water, large quantities of water would have filled the associated piping. As the incident later progressed and gases were ejected from Tank 610, the gases would have cleared the water from the main RVVH flow path out of the vent gas scrubber. On the other hand, all of the branch downlegs, as well as the 220-foot section of the PVH with the downlegs on either end of it, would have remained full of water, as the connection between the PVH and the vent gas scrubber had been previously blinded off to allow replacement of some sections of PVH. And, even though the vented gases were hot, the water in these sections could not have boiled or evaporated away, because these sections were dozens of feet away from the piping in which hot gases were flowing. When the branch vent lines on the ground floor of the production unit and the branch vent lines connected to Tank 611 and to the spare tank were drained, only normal, small amounts of water (or no water al all) were found. On February 8, 1985, the Superintendent of Police, CBI, ordered (see Figure 5A) that a hole be drilled in the lowest point of this 220-foot length of the PVH, to determine how much water was contained therein. The authorization acknowledges that this section of pipe had no bleeders or flanged joints. For the water-washing theory to have been true, there should have been hundreds of pounds of water still in this section of pipe, and so some empty 55-gallon drums were made available to collect whatever amounts of liquid would issue from the drilled hole. When the hole was drilled, however, the pipe was found to be bone-dry. The line was Page 9 of 16 Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. immediately purged with nitrogen to force any liquid out, but not a drop was obtained (see Figure 5B). Thus, the water-washing theory is clearly untenable. The bleeder valves in the waterwashing area would have had to be closed (but three were witnessed to have been open), the intermediate header valves would have had to be open (but at least one is documented to have been closed and leak-tight), and there would have had to be hundreds of pounds of water in the 220-foot section of the PVH drilled after the incident was over (but not even a single drop was found). VI. SIGNIFICANT ASPECTS OF THE UCC INVESTIGATION As indicated in Section V, it was clear to those investigating the event that it had not been caused in the manner that had gained popular acceptance — inadvertent failure to place a slipblind during water-washing of lines near the process filters. The UCC team also thoroughly considered other possible routes of water entry and became convinced that this incident had been initiated by the entry of water to the tank by means of a direct connection. Evidence of a direct-connection entry was gathered only gradually, however, in large measure because of some of the psychological factors and motivations discussed earlier. PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS Perhaps because of the enormity of the event, many people, even those only peripherally involved, tended to remember in detail and with great clarity the sequence of events of that night. Nevertheless, people experienced the event in different ways, thus yielding, for example, varying estimates of the duration of the actual release. The tendency of plant workers to omit facts or distort evidence was also clearly evident after the Bhopal incident, making the collection of evidence a time-consuming process. In investigating any incident in which facts seem to have been omitted or distorted, it is necessary to examine the motives of those involved. The story that had been initially told by the workers was a preferable one from their perspective, because it exonerated everyone, except perhaps the supervisor. According to this version, the reaction happened instantaneously; there was no time to take preventive or remedial measures, and there was no known cause. Without a cause, no blame could be established. Because critical facts were being deliberately omitted and distorted, the investigation team had to continually review and reanalyze each new piece of evidence and to assess its consistency and veracity with hard evidence and known facts. Ultimately, several firm pieces of evidence came to light — evidence that simply did not fit the story told initially by the workers, and that eventually led to the conclusion that a direct water connection had been found by the workers, but had been covered up. Page 10 of 16 Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. LAST TRANSFER OF MIC TO THE SEVIN UNIT The plant records show the following sequence of events. Although in the weeks prior to the incident the MIC manufacturing unit had been shut down, the SEVIN unit was operating, using the MIC that had been stored in the tanks. The operators were transferring MIC from Tank 611 to a one-ton charge pot for subsequent conversion to SEVIN. Plant procedure was to exhaust the contents of one MIC storage tank before using the MIC in the second tank, and 21 tons remained in Tank 611. Thus, although they experienced some difficulty in pressurizing Tank 610, which had been at atmospheric pressure for the previous six weeks, there was more than enough MIC in Tank 611 to meet the SEVIN production requirement and there was no need to use the MIC in Tank 610. During the early period after the incident, when the Union Carbide investigation team was about to assist in safely disposing of the MIC remaining in Tank 611, the MIC in the SEVIN charge pot and the transfer line between the tank and the charge pot was sampled. The MIC was found to be greenish, with a higher-than-normal chloroform content (consistent with that of the MIC stored in Tank 610 prior to the incident), and with evidence of the presence of non-volatile reaction products of a water-MIC reaction. These samples caused a substantial amount of concern because it was then feared that there might also be a major problem with the MIC in Tank 611 as well. Precautions were taken to sample the MIC in Tank 611 and extensive analyses of the contents of Tank 611 were conducted. The MIC in Tank 611, however, proved to be onspecification and clear, with normal levels of chloroform, and no non-volatile reaction products. The investigation team, therefore, concluded that the last transfer to the SEVIN charge pot must have come from Tank 610, before its contents had severely reacted, rather than from Tank 611. This piece of evidence was surprising because everyone had assumed that all transfers had come from Tank 611 during the period prior to the event. This assumption had been made because the last transfer, as logged by the SEVIN unit operators, occurred from Tank 611 at 23:30, or 11:30 p. . , just prior to the incident. In addition, prior to the time the pressure had begun to rise in Tank 610, there had been insufficient pressure to make a transfer from Tank 610. No operators had reported a transfer that night from Tank 610, although several stated a transfer from Tank 611 had occurred. The team was well aware of the tendency of operators, after an incident of such magnitude, to distance themselves and minimize their involvement, and therefore it continued to explore the possibility that a transfer had been made from Tank 610. Some of the copies of records released to Union Carbide in December 1985 were copies of the MIC inventory records, including those for the night of the incident. One log, which had been previously unavailable to Union Carbide’s investigation team in December 1984, showed a final transfer of MIC from Tank 611 between 10:15 and 10:30 p. m. , the evening of the incident. Although, initially, the log did not appear out of the ordinary, several unusual factors were noticed upon closer examination (see next-to-last entry in Figure 6): 1) The transfer was logged as having started at 10:15 p. . on the second shift but between two operators who did not arrive until the third shift began at 10:45 p. m. later that night. It was logged in the handwriting of one of those third shift operations. 2) The logged time of the transfer was out of sequence with the remaining entries. 3) The operator who logged it normally used the 24-hour clock convention in recording transfers. The investigators studied these records, and finally determined that the transfer had been originally logged at â€Å"0:15† to â€Å":30†, or 12:15 to 12:30 a. m. and had been altered later that morning Page 11 of 16 Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. in an attempt to cover up the events and to move the time of the transfer back to a period of time in which the MIC operators could not be blamed. The team thus concluded that the logs showed there had been a transfer from Tank 610 at 12:15 a. m. to 12:30 a. m. — 15 minutes before the major release occurred. In addition to its proximity to the release, the transfer also occurred during the time of the tea break, which was highly irregular. Water is known to be heavier than MIC, and the transfer line comes up from the bottom of the tank. With the discovery of this log, together with the results of the charge pot analysis, the UCC team concluded that there had been an attempt by the MIC operators to remove water from the tank just prior to the time the safety valve lifted, after the pressure had increased sufficiently in the tank to move the material out. This completely refuted the story that the workers had originally told regarding the instantaneous reaction. Moreover, it showed that the operators knew water had entered Tank 610. The transfer of one ton of material would have been wholly and obviously ineffective to relieve pressure in the 45-ton tank; the only reason for a transfer at that time was to get water known to be in the tank out of the tank. This conclusion was further supported by the logs recorded that night in the SEVIN unit. These were made in duplicate, and one copy showed the time of an MIC transfer as 23:30, whereas on the other copy, found in the accounting records, the time of the transfer was missing. We believe that the SEVIN supervisor may have filled in the time of the transfer after the incident to make it appear that the transfer had not occurred close to the time of the major release, but was unable to do so on all copies because the second copy had already been sent (as required by plant procedure) to the plant’s accounting office. When the investigating team interviewed the SEVIN supervisor, he at first would not admit that he had gone into the SEVIN unit that morning at all, but he later admitted that he had entered there briefly to complete his logs. The morning after the incident he reportedly discussed the possibility of reacting the MIC in the charge pot into SEVIN, perhaps in an attempt to destroy any evidence of a charge from Tank 610. CONTRADICTIONS Meanwhile, as the interviews with the operators and supervisors directly involved progressed, it became apparent that there were massive contradictions in their stories. For example, operators and employees from other units and another plant downwind of the MIC unit, together with some MIC operators, reported sensing small MIC leaks well before the major release occurred, and they notified their shift supervisors. However, those Bhopal plant supervisors denied hearing any reports about earlier leaks. In addition, the supervisors were unable to plausibly account for their activities during the 45-minute period prior to the release. They placed themselves with people and in locations for reasons that were entirely different from those that had been given by those individuals they were supposedly with. Ultimately, the reasons for this became clear: witnesses from other units reported that these supervisors and the plant superintendent were taking a break in the plant’s main canteen when they received word of the incident. Because previously they had been instructed not to take their breaks together, they masked their actions by claiming to know nothing until just prior to the major release. Page 12 of 16 Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. The operators in the MIC unit also gave widely contradictory accounts. For example, some stated that the alarm signaling the major release went off only several minutes after tea began at 12:15 a. m. , whereas others stated that the tea period in the control room was entirely normal, and they had not noticed anything to be amiss until just a few minutes prior to the major release. The control room operator initially told the media that he noticed the pressure in Tank 610 was 10 psig when the shift began; however, he later stated that the pressure remained at 2 psig until after tea. Because some of the witnesses directly involved in the incident were initially unavailable for interviews, and because others were rendering obviously contradictory accounts, reports given by the more peripheral figures during the incident became highly important. For these individuals, primarily operators from other units or those who were not present at the time of the incident, there was no motive to distort or omit facts, and their accounts were thus deemed more reliable. Ultimately, it became clear that the MIC operators knew at least 30 to 45 minutes before the release that something was seriously wrong, and that several had acted in an attempt to forestall the problem. One of the more reliable accounts came from a witness who had no motive or reason to distort or omit the facts. He was the â€Å"tea boy†, who served tea in the MIC control room just prior to the major release. With some difficulty, he was located in Nepal, in the Himalayas, and brought to Delhi. Despite the MIC operators’ claim of a normal tea period, the tea boy reported that when he entered the unit at about 12:15 a. m. , the atmosphere was tense and quiet. Although he attempted to serve tea, the operators refused it. After detailed questioning of scores of operators, it became apparent that those directly involved were unable to give consistent accounts because they were attempting to give very specific details of events that never occurred. Therefore, the investigation team made an intensive effort to find logs that might have been initially overlooked and that might shed some light on the cause or course of the incident. Two of the significant findings were: 1) While reviewing the daily notes of the MIC unit for the period prior to the incidents, a sketch was found on the reverse side of one page, the first page available for writing. This sketch showed a hose connection to an instrument on a tank, and it appears to have been made to explain how the water entered the tank. ) This effort to search the records brought to light even further evidence of attempts to cover up the story. For example, the time of the occurrence had been altered in log after log to reflect the incident occurring at a different time than had been initially recorded. This was true of the foam-tender log, the assistant security officer’s log, the utilities log, and the stores register. Further, in some logs, the pages relevant to the period in question had been either completely, or partially, ripped out. It appeared clear: there had been a systematic effort to alter and destroy logs. In many cases, the team found that the witnesses, especially the peripheral ones, were not aware of which facts were pertinent, and they revealed only those they considered important. Thus, it was necessary to talk at length to witnesses about all the facts and circumstances involved to draw out relevant facts. For example, during a series of routine interviews with a variety of former plant employees held in the winter of 1986, an instrument supervisor, who was not on duty that night, offered a telling observation. Casually, he mentioned that when he arrived at the scene early on the morning following the incident, upon checking the instruments on the tank, as he had been instructed to do, he noticed that the local pressure indicator on Tank 610 was missing. This fact was of crucial importance because the instrument is on the tank manhead, and was one of the few places to Page 13 of 16 Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. which a water hose could be connected (see Item 10 of Figure 7). The witness was wholly unaware of the significance of his statement. Upon further questioning, the team learned that the indicator was not only missing, but a plug had not been inserted in its place, as would have been the case if it had been removed in the course of plant maintenance. Plant logs showed that the local pressure indicator had been present as of Friday, November 30, 1984, two days prior to the incident. The same instrument supervisor stated that he also found a hose lying beside the tank manhead that morning, and that water was running out of it. Other witnesses questioned later also recalled that the local pressure indicator on Tank 610 was found to be missing after the incident. After his statements subsequently became public in the litigation between the Indian Government and Union Carbide, the CBI subjected the instrument supervisor to six days of interrogation and intimidation during which they attempted, without success, to force him to change his testimony 5. Additional significant evidence of direct entry of water came from other peripheral witnesses. Within hours of the incident, reports of a direct water connection to the tank began to circulate among the plant employees. These were reported to the Indian Government by plant management but they could not be pursued at that time because the CBI had prohibited interviews of plant employees. As it became evident that a massive cover-up had occurred among the more directly involved witnesses, these reports became more credible. The investigators, therefore, traced the origins of this report and spoke to an off-duty employee of another unit, who had reached the plant at approximately 2:00 a. . the morning of the incident. He stated that he had been told by a close friend of one of the MIC operators that water had entered through a tube that had been connected to the tank. This was discovered by the other MIC operators, who then tried to open and close valves to prevent the release. Although the MIC operators used technical terms to describe the connection that the interviewee did not understand, he was able to draw the exact location of the connection, which proved to be the location of the local pressure indicator on Tank 610. Another peripheral witness whose testimony proved to be of significance was an operator from a different unit who was on duty that night. He stated that, shortly after the release had subsided early that morning, at approximately 3:00 a. m. , the workers from other units were discussing the incident in the plant. Two MIC operators told them that water had entered the tank through a pressure gauge. VII. THE DIRECT-ENTRY CHRONOLOGY The results of this investigation show, with virtual certainty, that the Bhopal incident was caused by the entry of water to the tank through a hose that had been connected directly to the tank. It is equally clear that those most directly involved attempted to obfuscate these events. Nevertheless, the pieces of the puzzle are now firmly in place, and based upon technical and objective evidence, the following sequence of events occurred. At 10:20 p. m. on the night of the incident, the pressure in Tank 610 was at 2 psig. This is significant because no water could have entered prior to that point; otherwise a reaction would have begun, and the resulting pressure rise would have been noticed. At 10:45 p. m. , the shift change occurred. The unit was shut down and it takes at least a half hour for the shift change to be Page 14 of 16 Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. accomplished. During this period, on a cold winter night, the MIC storage area would be completely deserted. We believe that it was at this point — during the shift change — that a disgruntled operator entered the storage area and hooked up one of the readily available rubber water hoses to Tank 610, with the intention of contaminating and spoiling the tank’s contents. It was well known among the plant’s operators that water and MIC should not be mixed. He unscrewed the local pressure indicator, which can be easily accomplished by hand, and connected the hose to the tank. The entire operation could be completed within five minutes. Minor incidents of process sabotage by employees had occurred previously at the Bhopal plant, and, indeed, occur from time to time in industrial plants all over the world. The water and MIC reaction initiated the formation of carbon dioxide which, together with MIC vapors, was carried through the header system and out of the stack of the vent gas scrubber by about 11:30 to 11:45 p. m. Because the â€Å"common valve† (Item 16 of Figure 7) was in a closed position before the incident and the tank held a strong vacuum when it cooled down after the incident, it is clear that the valve was temporarily opened to permit the entry of water. This also permitted the vapors initially generated to flow (via the PVH) out through the RVVH. It was these vapors that were sensed by workers in the area downwind as the earlier minor MIC leaks. The leak was also sensed by several MIC operators who were sitting downwind of the leak at the time. They reported the leak to the MIC supervisor and began to search for it in the MIC structure. At about midnight, they found what they believed to be the source, viz. , a section of open piping located on the second level of the structure near the vent gas scrubber. They fixed a fire hose so that it would spray in that direction and returned to the MIC control room believing that they had successfully contained the MIC leak. Meanwhile, the supervisors went to the plant’s main canteen on break. Shortly after midnight, several MIC operators saw the pressure rise on the gauges in the control room and realized that there was a problem with Tank 610. They ran to the tank and discovered the water hose connection to the tank. They discussed the alternatives and called the supervisors back from the canteen. They decided upon transferring about one ton of the tank’s contents to the SEVIN unit as the best method of getting the water out. The major release then occurred. The MIC supervisor called the MIC production manager at home within fifteen minutes of the major release and told him that water had gotten into an MIC tank. (It later took UCC’s and GOI’s investigating teams, working separately, months to determine scientifically that water entry had been responsible. Not knowing if the attempted transfer had exacerbated the incident, or whether they could have otherwise prevented it, or whether they would be blamed for not having notified plant management earlier, those involved decided upon a cover-up. They altered logs that morning and thereafter to disguise their involvement. As is not uncommon in many such in cidents, the reflexive tendency to cover up simply took over. VIII. CONCLUSION By their nature, large-magnitude incidents present unique problems for investigators. In the case of the Bhopal incident, these problems were compounded by the constraints placed on the Union Carbide investigation team by the Indian Government and, most significantly, by the Page 15 of 16 Bhopal as a Case Study – Union Carbide Corp. prohibition of interviews of plant employees for over a year. Had those constraints not been imposed, the actual cause of the incident would have been determined within several months. Because the investigation was blocked, a popular explanation arose in the media as to the cause of the tragedy. A thorough investigation, which included scores of in-depth witness interviews, a review of thousands of plant logs, tests of valving and piping, hundreds of scientific experiments, and examinations of the plant and its equipment, was ultimately conducted over a year later. That investigation has established that the incident was not caused in the manner popularly reported, but rather was the result of a direct water connection to the tank. IX. REFERENCES 1. Pietersen, J. M. , â€Å"Analysis of the LPG Incident in San Juan Ixtahuapec, Mexico City, 19 November 1984†³, TNO Report 85-0222, 1985. 2. Report on Scientific Studies on the Release Factors Related to Bhopal Toxic Gas Leakage†, Indian Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, December 1985. 3. â€Å"Bhopal Methyl Isocyanate Investigation Team Report†, Union Carbide Corporation, Danbury, Connecticut, U. S. A. , March 1985. 4. In re: Union Carbide Corporation Gas Plant Disaster at Bhopal, India in December 1984. MDL Docket No. 626, U. S. District Court, Southern District of New York, Ordered November 8, 1985. 5. Interlocutory Application No. 19, Filed in Court of District Judge, Bhopal, in Regular Suit No. 1113 of 1986, Date, February 4, 1986. Page 16 of 16 How to cite Bhopal Gas Tragedy, Papers

The effect of watching too much tv for kids free essay sample

Children from birth to age five are actively growing, learning and developing habits that will shape their physical and emotional health. Because this time period is so crucial to the development of a child’s body and brain, any negative influences can have lifelong health effects (1). Excessive television viewing among young children has been linked to negative impacts on early brain development, and lifelong physical health (1, 2). Television and early brain development Repeated exposure to television or related activity can affect a child’s mental and emotional development (1). TV often takes the place of interactive experiences (e. g play) that promote healthy brain development (1, 2, 3, 4). Too much TV during the early years has been linked to: o Poor performance in school, especially in the areas of language and reading. If TV is substituted for reading and talking with others at a young age, children may have delayed language development (1, 2, 3, 5, 26). o Being less able to use imagination. We will write a custom essay sample on The effect of watching too much tv for kids or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Too much TV can lead to an overload on the visual part of the brain, while depriving other parts of the brain. Areas of the brain responsible for creative thought and imagination are under used because watching television doesn’t require these skills (2). o Not being able to tell apart television from the real world. (3). o Problems focusing. Too many fast paced images from TV watching keeps the brain from learning how to pay attention and also the instant stimulus of TV can cause a children to become impatient in complex situations (1). o Poor skills in planning and judging. The areas of the brain responsible for these skills are under used and not fully developed if a young child watches too much television and plays too many video games (1).b  o More likely to be violent when problems occur. Television and video game violence is thought to be responsible for 10% to 20% of all real-life violence (3, 23). The negative impacts of television on child and lifelong physical health include: o Replacing physical activity with inactivity (sedentary behavior). A decrease in physical activit y is linked to an increased risk for obesity and some chronic diseases (6, 7, 8,15). o Promotion of poor dietary habits. Increased exposure to advertisements for high fat and sugar containing foods leading to poor food choices (9, 21, 22). †¢ The average child views about 20,000 commercials each year (12). †¢ Sugary cereals are strongly marketed to children; making up 34% of all commercials during children’s programming (22). †¢ Children often ask for these foods by name and parents buy them (21). †¢ A recent study found that increased television viewing during meals is associated with an increased consumption of foods high in fat and sugar and a decreased consumption of fruits, vegetables and milk (9). o More snacking while watching TV. Television viewing is associated with increased consumption of snacks (6, 9). †¢ Children with a television in their bedroom snack more than children without (6). o More likely to become overweight. The more time a child, adolescent or adult spends watching television, the greater chance he or she has of becoming overweight (6, 13). Overweight children have a higher risk of developing diabetes. †¢ Childhood obesity in the US has tripled over the last 25 years (24, 25). †¢ Children who are overweight by the age of two have a 10% chance of overweight in adulthood. Those who are still overweight by age ten have a 79% chance of overweight in adulthood (14, 20). †¢ A recent study found that 10 % of preschool children ages 2-4 are overweight, and 16 % of low income preschool children are overweight (6). Strategies for reducing the impact of television on child development include: o LIMIT VIEWING TIME: At home, school, and childcare o KEEP TV OUT OF CHILD’S ROOM: Children with a television in their room spend more time watching TV than those without a television in their room (6, 27). o ADULTS CAN HELP CHILDREN UNDERSTAND TV CONTENT by choosing appropriate programs, watching with their children, and discussing what they see together. o PROVIDE ROLE MODELS: The amount of time a child spends  watching TV is closely related to the amount of time that his or her parents spend watching TV (16). How much television do children watch? The average American child watches 20 to 30 hours of television per week, not including time spent watching movies, playing video games, or using the computer (3, 4). †¢ A national survey of televisi on use found that preschoolers watch about 2. 6 hours per day, and 31% of preschoolers have a television in their bedroom (17). †¢ A child who watches more than two hours of television per day by the age of two, is more likely to increase television viewing hours by the age of six (18). How much TV is too much? Children who watch television for 10 hours or more per week are less skilled at reading and are less successful in school than children who watch less than 10 hours per week (5, 26). The American Academy of Pediatrics makes the following recommendations regarding television: (See additional materials for the full AAP Policy Statement on Children, Adolescents, and Television) (3) †¢ Television viewing should not exceed one to two hours of quality programming daily. †¢ Children younger than two years old should not watch television. Why do children watch so much TV? The television viewing habits of parents and siblings influences a child’s TV viewing habits more than any other factor (16). Children may also watch more TV due to a: †¢ Lack of other activities offered in the community (8) †¢ Lack of safety outside the home (8) †¢ Lack of interaction with their parents (8) †¢ More programs geared towards children (21, 22) †¢ A television in their bedroom (6, 27) How can we reduce television viewing? Fortunately, classroom programs aimed at reducing television viewing have been successful (11, 19). Also, parents are motivated to protect the health of their children, and are motivated by a child’s enthusiasm. Early childhood educators can: †¢ Get children interested in activities other than television. †¢ Educate children and their families on why reducing television time may be healthier. †¢ Provide ideas for replacing television with more active and interactive alternatives. †¢ Provide information about healthy eating habits. †¢ Provide support and resources to families as they make decisions about the use of television in their homes. How will the ClicKit!  help to reduce television use in families? The ClicKit! materials are a resource for your program to introduce television reduction to children and their families. The materials in this teaching kit provide: †¢ Lesson plans and program action goals. †¢ Materials on reducing television and increasing physical activity for posting at program sites, sending home with families, and i ncorporating into educational activities with children and parents. †¢ Ideas for alternative activities to replace TV. †¢ A website with additional resources for staff and parents.